December 31, 2015

The major US stock market averages sank at the open (Dow -119 pts; SPX -.6%). Consumer staples, tech and utilities are leading the market lower. This comes despite a small bump in oil. WTI crude oil is up .27% to $36.70/barrel. Energy is the only sector in the green in early trading despite the fact that the dollar is a bit stronger on the day. So for the moment, the familiar patterns are not holding true. Bonds prices are higher as yields tick lower. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.76% and 2.27%, respectively.

So the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average are going out roughly flat for the year. And a CNBC anchor said this morning, “This has been the hardest year to make money in traditional assets since 1937.” I’m not exactly sure what that means, but clearly we’ve been in a low return environment for stocks, bonds and commodities. Commodities have been a terrible investment this year. Copper is down nearly 28%, the iShares Gold ETF (GLD) is down 10.6%, and of course oil has fallen from $50/barrel to $36. Gasoline prices are at their cheapest since 2009, averaging $2.40/gallon this year. Bonds yields are up and most of the major fixed income ETFs are lower for the year (TLT, LQD, HYG, AGG). Speaking of interest rates, the average 30-year US mortgage rate just went over 4% for the first time in five months. Freddie Mac’s chief economist projects the rate will climb to 4.7% by the end of 2016.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) collapsed to 42.9 this month, the lowest reading since the summer of 2009. The forward-looking new orders component collapsed to 38.8, which is very contractionary. In addition, production, backlogs and employment components are all in contraction (below 50). This report suggests the manufacturing sector in the Chicago area is in recession. At the same time, US consumer confidence is rising throughout the US. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to 43.6 this week and I’d point out that the index has been up around 8-year highs for all of 2015.

August 4, 2015

Stocks sagged again at the open (Dow -16 pts; SPX flat) and there is no clear direction. Commodities are faring a bit better and the dollar is weaker on the day. WTI crude oil is up 2% to $46/barrel but there is a growing chorus of analysts calling for a near-term re-test of $42. By the way, the national average price of gasoline has backed down to around $2.65/gallon. But the California average is currently $3.72 and the Orange County average is near $4.00. Bonds are slightly lower this morning. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are currently trading at 1.53% and 2.17%, respectively. I know I mentioned it yesterday, but it bears repeating: the recent move lower in long term rates suggests the economy isn’t strong enough to produce any real inflation, and that means the Federal Reserve won’t be raising short term rates this year.

This is admittedly a very confusing market. The S&P 500 Index has been traveling in a very narrow range, directionless, since the end of January. But the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which is often seen as a leading indicator for the whole stock market, saw a 13% correction through early July, and is still down nearly 8% for the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index is up about 8% so far in 2015, but it has been driven by a very narrow group of winners that represent a large portion of the index (AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, GILD). Strong cross-currents (i.e. strengthening US dollar another plunge in oil prices) have caused huge divergence between sectors. The energy sector is down 15% this year whereas the consumer discretionary sector is up 11%. And whereas we’ve weathered the melt-down in Greece, markets are now grappling with an economic slowdown in China. It seems apparent that the commodity super cycle is over now that China is no longer able to drive global growth. And then there’s the Fed, dutifully, gradually preparing investors for higher interest rates. And while we don’t believe they will hike rates this year, the Fed is certainly no longer a tailwind for the stock market. From now on, “don’t fight the Fed” means don’t invest against an upward move in rates. So that has (temporarily) taken the wind out of the sails of dividend stocks. All this is to acknowledge that in a near-term trader’s view, the stock rally is looking fragile.

Now zoom out to a longer investment horizon. Famed investor Laszlo Birinyi says he believes the S&P 500 Index will reach 3,200 by 2017. Of course, the current level is 2,100, so he expects strong gains over the long term. Mr. Birinyi notes that this is the second greatest rally in history, and “there’s no reason why we can’t keep on going.” All of the factors listed above—fear of Fed rate hikes, Greece, China, stronger dollar—are “noise,” and this rally has been hated by investors all the way up. He advises, “Don’t’ get shaken out by all this noise.”